2015 Timescales: Developments in Climate predictions on what lies ahead
There is an urgency to act now, scientific research published in Feb 2015 describes how man-made global warming in the past decade has been offset by cooling from natural cycles in the Pacific and
Atlantic but the effect will reverse in the coming decades. Some analysis of past variations predict a 75% chance of changeover within 5 years. The authors of the paper describe the slowdown some times called a warming hiatus or ‘false pause’ which was spouted by climate change sceptics and led to complacency in our response to acting on the problem. They warn that the natural cycles called the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation have had an overall cooling effect on earth surface temperatures and will dramatically be reversed in the coming decades. At this point warming will appear to accelerate to about double the rate before the hiatus in the 1990’s.
Co- author of report Prof Steinman: ‘I think the biggest thing that people should understand is there is a randomness in the climate system. The recent slowdown in no way invalidates the idea that continued burning of fossil fuels will increase Earths surface temperature and pose substantial burdens on human society. ‘
It is important to note that while the increase in global air temperatures has slowed the oceans have taken up heat at a faster rate since the turn of the century. Over 90% of the overall extra heat goes into the oceans, with only 2% heating the earth’s atmosphere. The myth of the pause is based on ignoring 98% of global warming focusing exclusively on the bit that’s slowed.
It is safe to predict that a rapid rise in surface temperature will have an effect on society as a whole as impatient protestors tire of being suppressed and ignored. Outbreaks of violent demonstration, riots and disobedience could well cause a brutal reaction by government. This would lead to ever worsening chaos where sensible non violent solutions will be ignored by both parties. You only have to look at current conflict zones to see this. If we think it couldn’t happen here we are kidding ourselves. Extreme right wing politics are already increasing in popularity; rights to protest are being degraded and our human rights are being questioned in the media as to their necessity.
We need to build practical projects that are opportunities for open minded people wanting peaceful change to get involved in; if we are not there some other more extreme organisation will be happy to take on more recruits